The developments in the international arena gave many surprises as well. Last spring Trump almost unleashed a nuclear war. And he's still threatening North Korea with the US nuclear stick. The leaders of the two countries have engaged in a button-measuring contest. If it comes to the military conflict, the owner of a bigger one will inflict more damage on the opponent. So, Donald Trump's erratic moves, as some call his presidential activity, leave many people puzzled. It's so surprising that some people decided to check the new President's health to find out if any physical or mental diseases hinder his professional activity.
My colleagues have a related story. Let's watch it.
On Friday night Donald Trump arrived in Florida, accompanied by his wife and younger son. The family often spends weekends at Mar-a-Lago residence. The politician greeted the meeters and greeters with an energetic gesture, as if to confirm his doctor's words who shed light on the medical examination of the head of the White House.
"The president's physical exam today at Walter Reed National Military Center went exceptionally well. The President is in excellent health. The annual physical examination has been routine for a US President since Nixon. But this exam was in the spotlight not because it was Trump's first presidential. More than 70 psychologists considered it necessary to examine the President's mental health. They wrote it to his doctor.
However, American Psychiatric Association guidelines prohibit to make a diagnosis to a public person prior to a personal examination. Real Admiral Ronny Jackson conducted the examination. He served in Iraq and has treated the US leaders since 2006. His detailed readout of Trump's physical dispels many rumors about the health of the number 1 patient. It is due in no small part to Michael Wolff's 'Fire and Fury'. Quoting the people surrounding the subject, the author questions the 71-year-old politician's fitness for the presidential office.
Repelling the attacks, Trump called himself "genius" on Twitter only to fuel the backlash. Shortly before it the WH spokesperson had to explain what happened to the President during his speech on Jerusalem. Officially, he just felt dry. But the haters also remember unhealthy eating habits of the head of state, especially his love for fast food. They also recall that Trump claims he is 190 cm tall and his weight is 107 kg, but his driver license indicates that he is 187 cm tall, and such a weight to height ratio means obesity.
Jamie Wells, member of American Council on Science and Health: "It's no secret that few people boast an ideal lifestyle. The same unhealthy habits have a different impact on people. Even a 20-year-old may suffer a heart attack".
Trump's doctor promised to calm down shortly the public's concern about the President's health. The doctor's briefing is scheduled for Tuesday.
Elizaveta Framtsova for Vesti.
Our guests will discuss today Trump's first-year presidential record.
Alexander Treshev, plenipotentiary representative of the EU Chamber of Lawyers to Russia. Victor Olevich, top expert at the Actual Politics Center. Valery Garbuzov, director of the Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Dmitry Mikheev, ex-senior professor at Hudson Institute.
- Hello, gentlemen. The first question is to Alexander Treshev. What's going on in the USA? Why did it reach the point when we see all this performance? The health of the top-most public official is scrutinized in such a manner that it is, I'd say, humiliating the President. Why is it happening?
Alexander Treshev: I first met Donald Trump 20 years ago accompanying a Russian presidential candidate. Nothing has changed so far. He's a rich showman who's beneficial to everyone. The more criticism heaped on him, the more he's in the spotlight. He's not modest and isn't trying to hide it. He says he's the only President under whom stock prices went up within a short period of less than a year, while under Obama their growth slowed down to drop. He's going to Davos, and I'm convinced that soon we'll witness another show of him pushing away all the world leaders to play center stage, again, speaking of his achievements. That's why everybody's mocking him beforehand. Wall Street Journal has been criticizing him over the past year, featuring various cartoons with him, photos of him, trolling him. And yesterday Trump gave the biggest interview to Wall Street Journal.
- Wall Street Journal?
- Exactly.
- So, he's accommodating his 'enemy'.
- Yes. By the way, when asked about Russia at the end of the interview, he said they would follow the election very carefully without interfering in it. That is, Donald Trump is a showman.
- Oh, at least we shouldn't worry about the election.
- Yes. He's a showman who understands what is beneficial to all. Newspapers' audience shrunk because people turned to the Internet, but lately many people have been reading them again.
- So, they also must be grateful to Trump. I get your point. Victor Olevich, do you think he's a showman or a politician? Is our program devoted to show business? Or are we still discussing politics? Is he a showman or a politician?
Victor Olevich: He is, of course, a showman, but, as the US President, he's primarily a politician. And, politically, he's proven to be an ineffective President.
- But an effective showman.
- Well, yes, an effective showman. However, of all his electoral promises, during the first year of his presidency, he only managed to ram the tax reform through Congress.
Remember the migration system reform, which he mentioned multiple times while campaigning. It failed.
Remember his promise to build a wall at the border with Mexico. The Congress, both chambers of which are formally dominated by his Republican party fellows, denies the funding for this step.
- So, Republicans don't want to build the wall.
- Exactly. By the way, the newspaper that has just been mentioned by my colleague, Wall Street Journal, is a Republican newspaper which, as a rule, backs Republican presidents.
- Wait, Wall Street Journal is said to be the voice of other big boys on Wall Street who traditionally support the Democrats.
- Wall Street Journal is traditionally a center-right newspaper which is close to the Republican party. It's an important caveat. It supported George W. Bush and George H. W. Bush as well as other Republican presidents. In this sense, Trump stands out. He enjoys the support of neither Democratic nor center-right media who tend to back the Republicans. Thus, his first year was a failure, and his second year may be the last one.
- OK. Valery Garbuzov, can the next year really be his last presidential year? Trump has been rumored to be on the edge of impeachment. Is it true?
Valery Garbuzov: You know, I wouldn't say that this year will be Trump's last presidential year because even if the impeachment process is launched this year…
- They won't just have enough time to finish it.
- It takes at least a year. Thus, I don't think it will be Trump's last presidential year.
But I must say the following. Remember Trump's attitude to the election. He had almost no program, he only had some highlights instead.
- You mean, mottoes: 'Make America Great Again", etc.
- They were easy to understand and suggested radical solutions to all the problems.
- Like "let's kick out the Mexicans", etc.
- And it was what a grassroots US voter wanted to hear. It's simple to declare radical and easy solutions. But it's very difficult, almost impossible, to solve in a radical way the issues that have festered for years, if not decades.
- Valery, what's your opinion on Trump's presidential record? Indeed, he's only started to solve serious problems. Understandably, you are right to say that it's impossible to solve such major problems that have developed for years in a year, or even 2 years, or even a presidential term. So, what's going on now? Are these hardships due to a difficult start?
- No, I don't think it's due to a difficult start. I repeat that I describe the situation in the USA as a blocked presidency.
- What do you mean by this?
- I mean that he's very zealous, and many voters pinned hopes on Trump, but he can't advance many of his initiatives. He can't do anything for various reasons.
- What is the main reason?
- The main reason is that his presidential activity is blocked by Congress, media, and, generally speaking, by himself.
- Doesn't he want to fulfill his duties?
- That's not the point. Trump's worst enemy is Trump himself.
- Dmitry wants to enlarge on it.
Dmitry Mikheev: This year saw a change in his relationship with the Republicans and so-called establishment.
- Did they break up?
- Quite the contrary. The following has happened over the past 3-4 months. The Republican elite have started to support him, to protect him and have reluctantly stood by his side.
- Why reluctantly? He campaigned for the Republicans. He's a Republican himself.
- Yes, yes. But the Republican establishment hampered him, but he still won. It was in the past. A very important thing happened, which might have gone unnoticed for many people. The Deep State which he opposed and attacked has now learned to control him.
- They steamrolled him.
- They found a key to him, an approach. They have a good thing going. Analyzing his personality, look at his team.
- What is his team?
- Not only does his administration embrace 3 generals, but he also has oral briefings with the heads of CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency daily.
- Is it bad? A President must keep abreast of the developments.
- Yes, but these briefings used to be in a written form. But Trump doesn't like reading. Just imagine, the 2 main spies of the country visit him every day to spend 30-40 mins informing him of the world developments, etc. It's a crucial signal, showing that they have him in a tight grip.
- I see nothing bad in it. Alexander, do you want to add anything?
Alexander Treshev: Look, it's an illusion. They think they are all over him, but in fact, Donald controls them.
- So, he can read?
- Yes. He keeps these people closer than his enemies. He embraces all who might represent a threat to him. They are dancing attendance at him, thinking that they control him. I share my colleague's view who said that they initially were afraid of Trump. Because traditionally decisions used to be taken jointly. But he expressed his opinion openly, felt free to do so. Take his last week's expression for instance. "Shitcountries!" Actually, in the USA, it's fraught with penal sanctions. Nevertheless, he does what he deems necessary.
- Speaking of these "bad" countries, to put it mildly — by the way, we revenged on him by writing the same thing on his hotel — what makes him express his position in such a tough way? Why does he bully African states?
Dmitry Mikheev: Alexander, Trump is used to be tough, generally. Remember "You're fired?" He's bullying people left, right, and center.
- Is it conventional for politics? He's primarily a politician.
- No, this is not done in politics. But in business, where he's a boss and does everything he wants, he can do it. If you don't like it, go away, you're fired.
- Thank God, he's not our president. Victor, you're welcome.
Victor Olevich: Trump's statements about El Salvador, Haiti, African countries are the example of Trump's actions that the Deep State, that Dmitry has mentioned, considers unacceptable. They believe that such actions inflict reputational and other damage on the USA. They have learned to partially control Trump. But they want to dump him. You've just said that impeachment is a long process. And it may take more than this year. That's true, but there are several ways to dump the US President.
- What are the major ones?
- I'll cover 3 major ways, ranging them as per their probability. The least probable is to apply amendment 25, when the US cabinet vote to dump the President due to his physical or mental unfitness for the office. After such a vote, the vice-president automatically becomes the president. But they understand that almost half of the US voters voted for Trump, which is only 3 million less than for Hillary Clinton. Thus, they understand that the voters would never accept such a decision, considering it as a coup d'etat. So, the US establishment will try to avoid this option.
The second way is the impeachment. Indeed, it's a long process.
- In a Nixon style?
- No, Nixon's case is the third option. Impeachment is a long process that is also described in detail in the US Constitution. Obviously, if the impeachment process is launched, Trump will take advantage of the time to sully his opponents. Of course, the US political establishment understand it, and they wouldn't welcome such a scenario.
- Will he call them names?
- No, I mean that he might have some compromising material.
- So, he'll make it public?
- Naturally, it's possible. That's why it's not the most preferable option.
The best option is the third one. It's about Nixon's case.
- Watergate?
- The thing is that Nixon wasn't impeached.
- He resigned himself…
- One day a bipartisan delegation of the Congress visited him in the Oval Office to offer him either to resign by himself so that not to be impeached, to retain the privileges of an ex-president and restore his reputation in the future (which did happen); or to refuse and be impeached.
- Is the third option enshrined in the US Constitution?
- No, but it's a way of exerting pressure.
- So, it violates the Constitution, it's a coup d'etat.
- In fact, yes, it's a coup d'etat. Look what special counsel' Robert Mueller's investigation focuses on. He's trying to approach Donald Trump's family members, his son-in-law Jared Kushner and his wife. It can be the main leverage against Trump.
Dmitry Mikheev: Particularly, financial skulduggery.
- Do you think financial skulduggery does take place?
- Yes, because…
- But you're no prosecutor, how do you know?
- To prove to the world and Americans that the US President is in collusion with Russia, the enemy, would mean to show that their system doesn't work.
- So, you think they won't do it?
- It's very difficult and dangerous to try to prove the collusion of the US President with the enemy to damage his country, it's unlikely to be the ground for an impeachment. A financial ground is likely.
- So, you mean some shady business, tax issues, etc.
- Yes, there are a lot of them. I want to add something more. Speaking about the Deep State, they have beleaguered him, they control him: CIA, Defense Intelligence, 3 generals in his administration, etc. What is open to him is the Internet. He can tweet.
- Wait, all the Internet companies' management is against him. They canvassed against him.
- Nevertheless, he can write any nonsense and it will pass.
- But we can equally write any nonsense, so what?
- Gentlemen, speaking about the red button, I want our audience to know that there is no red button, especially on Trump's table. Maybe, Kim Jong Un has one. But it's another regime, another government. But he doesn't have such a button. There's a very long and complicated procedure. There are three codes that must match.
- Thank God. We saw American movies, we know how it works.
- Relax, he won't press this button by accident.
- Valery, the term of Deep State that has gone viral, is it a sort of a bureaucratic monster which rules America? How can you define it? Where does this term come from? Do you think this phenomenon is present?
Valery Garbuzov: It's been much spoken and written about. The thing is that the US presidential election is held every 4 years. The parliamentary election is held every 2 years. New people come. But there is irremovable federal state bureaucracy, which is often called the Deep State.
- So, these are regular bureaucrats.
- Every new president brings in his appointees, about 3,000 people. But the change of a president doesn't bring about the change of federal bureaucracy.
- You mean this middle layer, right?
- I mean ministries, agencies, bodies, where bureaucrats don't change, they keep living in Washington. They tend to work in these entities for 20-25 years.
- But that's the case in all the countries.
- Many people claim that it's the US' real government, not the US president's administration. They exaggerate, of course. But we shouldn't underestimate this phenomenon.
- So, it's a real phenomenon, isn't it?
- It is a real bureaucracy and a real phenomenon. It must be said that the notorious Richard Nixon, by the way, the process of his impeachment was launched but not finished, tried to fight this Washington swamp.
- And he ended up mired in it.
- He drew down the anger of this swamp on himself. He hated journalists, media, and it was mutual. You see, it looks like Trump's case.
- Meaning that impeachment is possible?
- As for Nixon, why did he leave? Because everybody ranged against Nixon, from the left to the right. So, he lost his footing. Even his Republican party tried to get rid of him because he scuppered the Republican party. If the current Republicans realize, if the situation is such that the Republicans understand that Trump scuppers the Republican party as well…
- Then they will launch the same process. We have very little time. Alexander wanted to add something.
Alexander Treshev: Yes. He's the only rich president. What is the main thing he did? He tied all his opponents, all the bureaucrats who retain their offices for decades and rule America, pulling the strings of power. March is the time to submit tax returns. I've just spoken with Los Angeles, New York, they just revere him because the rich become richer, they say they won't pay for the idlers bred by Obama anymore. Having secured the support of the rich, Trump will withstand, overcome everything and be reelected for the next term. Undoubtedly, it'll be scandalous, we'll savor it, and he'll continue to enjoy it and rule America.
- Alexander, indeed, it's too early to give up on the US President regarding his term. But still, why are you so sure that this group of the rich will help him retain the power?
- There are a lot of rich Americans.
- Yes, but if the electorate "rises" against Trump, accusing him of not living up to its expectations…
- But he did.
- How?
- He has reduced taxes as he promised…
- For companies?
- He'll reduce the expenses related to Mexico and Canada amounting to $100 billion. He's already done much for it. Thus, Americans will feel that their lives improve financially, and the taxes they paid, which used to be wasted God only knows on what, are now spent in a transparent way.
- There's something in what you say. The US stock indexes are really soaring. Given that the majority of the population profits from the stock market, as it's a serious issue there unlike our country…
Victor Olevich: It's a bubble that will burst
- It's already another discussion point, we'll tackle it when it bursts. Still, in face value, it makes the Americans richer, Alexander is right. Victor, do you agree? Can it go wrong?
- It depends. Alexander is right that the taxation reform benefited the US upper class. So, they backed it. But political considerations are to be taken into account as well. Speaking of rich, wealthy presidents, politicians, businesspeople, remember that the Bush family, the Romney family are very wealthy as well. They are very critical of Trump's activity. They even oppose him to some extent.
- So, not all the rich support Trump.
- No, not all of them. Key dynasties are against him.
Dmitry Mikheev: Maybe, the middle class is crucial because this fiscal loosening can hardly be called profitable for the middle class. It's more a gesture than anything. His supporters, his electorate get only a tiny handout, if we can put it so.
- Gentlemen, we have only 2 minutes. Obviously, Trump didn't live up to our expectations, but on the whole, will he eventually improve the relations with Russia or fall into line with the Deep State claiming that Russia is the enemy? Can he change his rhetoric, Valery?
Dmitry Mikheev: I am convinced that the Deep State is his straitjacket. He's beleaguered by these 7-8 people along with the Secretary of the Treasury. It's not by accident that $4.6 billion is allocated to counter Russia.
- Valery, will his policies towards us change when he gets rid of the Deep State's straitjacket?
Valery Garbuzov: The problem is not only with the proverbial Deep State. The discussion of it overshadows the phenomenon itself. The problem is also that since the last months of Obama's presidency and under Trump, quite a powerful legislation has been created in the US aimed to contain Russia. There are two dimensions, the one of sanctions and the other of confrontation.
- Valery, it's very interesting, thanks a lot. Unfortunately, we've run out of time. We'll continue to discuss the issue next time. Very briefly, Victor and Alexander, will the relations improve? Alexander?
Alexander Treshev: They will improve, he'll first mill the bureaucracy and then cut deals. -If we offer a profitable deal…
- He'll accept it.
- Yes.
- Victor?
Victor Olevich: In 2018 Russia-US relations will continue to deteriorate, unfortunately, at the US discretion.
Dmitry Mikheev: I agree.
- Thanks, gentlemen, for discussing Trump's presidential record. We'll continue our discussions, thank you, goodbye.
