Hello, this is International Review, and I'm Yevgeny Primakov.
International Review
The end of 2017 and the beginning of 2018 marked unrest in Iran. The protesters' slogans were of a social nature at first, against inflation, but political ones appeared quite quickly, in a couple of days. People demanded the resignation of Rouhani's government and even went against Ayatollah Khamenei.
There are several important issues about the support base and reasons for the unrest.
In 2017, a presidential election took place in Iran. Rouhani, who's considered to be a modernist and a reformer, won back then. He helped the country to get rid of sanctions, at least partly. And many remember that there were doubts about whether Rouhani could be reelected. The reason is that the sanctions against Iran were lifted after the so-called nuclear deal, but the quality of life didn't improve as fast as people had hoped. So, there were expectations that the conservatives could take it back. It didn't happen. As a result, Ayatollah Khamenei supported Rouhani, and his government received a new line of credit of trust.
One more thought. In practice, mass protests and other unrest due to social and economic reasons like inflation, low quality of life, unemployment, often happen not when life gets worse but when growth slows down. They expected more, and are dissatisfied with less.
In the case of Iran, it's even more complicated. There are too many players on the field. First of all, Iran's fierce opponent in the region is Saudi Arabia. At the end of last year, official Saudi channels distributed an animated movie about a "glorious victory of the Kingdom over Iran" if there was a war.
Let's take a look at this animation. It depicts the Persian Gulf, which is also called the Arabian Gulf in the Arab tradition, the Kingdom's Navy attacks the Iranian one, then air raids and missile launches follow, and then the Saudi Army enters Iranian cities, where happy people meet them as if they were their liberators.
After an exchange of such propagandistic favors, Tehran quite logically thought that the street events were provoked from within, and it's known from where. Moreover, the US president, using his main foreign policy tool, his Twitter account, promised to support the Iranians.
"Been there, done that, bought the t-shirt." In Tehran, they probably recalled the winter and summer of 2011 and what happened in northern Africa and the Arab countries. "We're Persians, not Arabs!" Well, the Persian Spring didn't seem to have taken place, and it didn't flourish on January 14, another anniversary of the Arab Spring. The regime dealt with the unrest, first of all, because they didn't play nice with the protesters, especially with those who attacked the police armories. Protesters were dispersed proactively and severely.
Secondly, the protesters didn't have a political leader. Consequently, there was no unifying central figure or political force. Thirdly, they didn't find any external support except for the obvious one in Saudi Arabia, the USA, and, of course, Israel.
But everyone remembered how it happened once. In 2009, there was a wave of unrest in Iran that was even called the Green Revolution. By the way, we'll also talk about the color revolution in Iran.
International Review
Mass protests began on June 12, 2009, after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was re-elected as president. His rival, former prime minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, declared himself the victor. His supporters, upset over his defeat, and took to the streets. The protesters were dispersed with the use of batons and tear gas. In Tehran, cellular services were switched off, Facebook (запрещена в РФ) and YouTube were blocked, but the demonstrations went on.
Mousavi demanded that the votes be recounted and filed an application to hold a protest. It was rejected. On June 15, people went out again, holding green flags. The movement began to be called the Green Revolution. The demonstrations quickly turned into riots. One man died. Demonstrations also took place near Iranian embassies in Paris, Berlin, London, Rome, and other cities. As a result, the Guardian Council of the Constitution complied with Mousavi's request and ordered a partial recount.
However, the former prime minister didn't agree and demanded another election. On the night of June 16, seven more protesters were shot. Mousavi and several of his supporters were placed under house arrest. After that, the protests started to die down.
International Review
Something went wrong with the new international sanctions, and there was no agreement. I'll remind you that at the UN Security Council meeting on January 5th, the US tried to push a resolution that would allow for interference in Iranian affairs, which supposedly go according to the Syrian scenario. The US obviously forgot the fact that the meeting took place when the unrest was almost over. President Rouhani's supporters had already taken to the streets. The UK and France weren't eager to join a risky new project either. The US representative Nikki Haley could only shake her fist at the sky.
International Review
We'd like to welcome two experts to International Review— Orientalist Vladimir Sazhin, and entrepreneur Fyodor Skuratov. You'll understand why we selected such guests.
- Hello, colleagues!
Mr. Sazhin, what was it? What was the real reason for the mass protests that took place in Iran? Were they initiated by the conservatives, or was it the liberals who wanted to liberate the "enslaved Iranian people," as Trump wrote on Twitter?
- I think that, first of all, it was because of the general discontent of Iranians with the events that had taken place up to that moment. Surprisingly, the pretext for the protest was the rise in prices for eggs and chicken by 40-45 percent. Chicken is the most common and widespread food. Right, it's their favorite food. It's a staple food. This caused discontent among the poor, first of all. On January 17, President Rouhani presented a budget draft to the Majlis for next year. In this draft, there were many things that the population didn't like, such as a decrease in various allowances, subsidies, and additional payments. Quite powerful forces oppose Rouhani and his government. These forces are ultraconservative, as they're called. Consequently, he didn't manage to create enough jobs, which he planned to create. So, unemployment remained at about 12.5 percent and almost 30 percent among the youth.
- Then, I'll ask your colleague a question. Fyodor, a question for you about the youth. As far as I understand, your company invests in young people, the users of the services you invest in. You're working with internet technologies in Iran, aren't you?
- Together with our Iranian partners, we're working with Telegram Messenger. In Iran, its penetration is almost 90 percent in terms of internet users. This messenger has replaced the Internet as a whole.
- That's interesting. What's the number of Telegram users in Russia and Iran? Let's compare. A Telegram channel has 20-30 thousand…
- It's 100 thousand, it's 100 thousand in Russia.
- How many subscribers does an average Telegram channel in Iran have?
- 500-600 thousand.
- An average one?
- Yes. An average channel has 500-600 thousand. A unique system was formed there, it's unique for Iran of the last years. When young people earn money, quite a lot of money, doing business in Telegram, inside the messenger, inside the platform.
- Is it paid content or shops?
- Shops, resale of some goods, content, entertainment, including the not quite legal kind. There's also comedy, news, and whatever you want. According to our Iranian partners' estimates, the number of those involved in doing business through Telegram in Iran is around 1 million, including their family members. This was before the recent ban of Telegram that took place before the new year. The ban hasn't ended yet…
- It hasn't?
- No, it hasn't. Our Iranian partners launched a hashtag called "one million jobs" on Twitter, as a protest…
- Fyodor, Telegram got caught in the crossfire after having been accused of preparing and coordinating that same unrest.
- Just in 10, let's say, days of such events the number of participants ranged from 40 thousand, according to the Iranian Ministry of Interior, to up to 400 thousand, as the opposition thinks. But think about it, 10 days, 100 cities. And the population is 80 million. Frankly speaking, that's not many.
- Many experts called these events in Iran an attempted color revolution. There's a book by Gene Sharp called From Dictatorship to Democracy, which describes 198 different methods of peaceful protest. Unfortunately, peaceful protests are often followed by violent riots, as the Arab Spring showed. This book, From Dictatorship to Democracy, is the color revolution study guide.
International Review
The main idea of color revolutions is to deprive the authorities of their legitimacy, And their goal is to paralyze the executive branch and to seize power. For this, one needs to find weak spots in the executive system, for example, among individual bureaucrats. Negotiations and concessions only make the job harder. It's important to create and maintain institutions that the government can't control, one that can unite citizens. These can include religious and parallel power structures, as well as small communities.
Attracting the police and the army to their side is a separate goal. At the same time, law enforcement agencies are painted in a negative light when they disperse protesters. A characteristic mark such as a bright-colored emblem or a flower helps to establish horizontal communications between the campaigners and to hold symbolic campaigns.
Milošević's overthrow in 2000 is considered to be the first classical color revolution. Serbian campaigners put practice into theory and started training revolutionaries all around the world.
Foreign aid is just a supplement. International sanctions and public pressure on the government can become good advantages.
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- Can we consider these events an attempted color revolution?
Vladimir Sazhin: In no way. It was a spontaneous action, and as I understand, no one was preparing for it. Even in the media, there was not a hint about what was going to happen before December 28, before everything started.
Fyodor Skuratov: There were no signs of the upcoming protest on the Internet, nothing on Iran's Telegram. At the beginning, the protests that started weren't even taken seriously.
- Why is Telegram so popular in Iran? How did that happen?
- Telegram became popular due to a combination of circumstances. A number of western services were blocked or worked poorly. And Telegram became the first internet service that people began to use.
- As far as I understand, the Internet is Telegram for many Iranians. They don't visit websites, they use Telegram.
- Right, it has TV series, movies, music, and TV programs. In 2016, the volume of the advertisement market within Telegram in Iran was approximately 200 million dollars.
- Wow!
- To a large extent, Rouhani won the last election thanks to Telegram. It was a campaign that received a lot of money, as far as I know, and almost the biggest part of the pre-election budget went through Telegram. And Rouhani's opponents are interested in blocking Telegram completely.
Vladimir Sazhin: That's absolutely true.
- Right.
- The governmental bodies said, first of all, that all this was foreign interference. We'd call it the machinations of imperialists, and In Iran, they named the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.
- You're absolutely right.
- Let's say that Saudi Arabia provided the grounds. We made a small compilation of the materials, published by the Saudi media during those days and... Of course, there's a lot of interest in what's going on, and the representations are the harshest ones.
International Review
"The Persian Spring will overthrow the Tehran mullahs' regime". This is a quote from the Riyadh Daily, the Saudi capital's newspaper.
"The expansionist intentions of the Tehran regime, its help to the rebel Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah militants in Lebanon, and its support of the war in Iraq and Syria, has exhausted the resources of the country. The people have risen against poverty and powerlessness. The new generation doesn't want to live according to Khomeini's laws".
What is awaiting Iran after the Ayatollahs' regime is overthrown? The Okaz Saudi newspaper journalist Ossama Imani is trying to find an answer.
"The Iranian Revolution that overthrew the Shah in 1979 retarded Iran's development by dozens of years. Imam Khomeini, whom France and a number of western countries once supported, disfigured the country. Now, Iran is governed by violent Shia Muslim mullahs and bandits from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, who are trying to bring their black revolution to other countries of the Islamic world. The Iranian revolution has started. The people don't believe in the mullahs' regime and will overthrow it soon".
"The revolution of death for Khomeini spread to 20 Iranian cities", as another Saudi newspaper, Alwatan, writes.
"The main reason for the unrest is not the plotting of the US and the other enemies of the regime, but the miserable economic state of regular citizens. This can be seen from the protesters' slogans, such as: "No to high prices!" The ruling clique spends all the money on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps terrorists, whose main mission involves acts of sabotage outside of the country.
What Ayatollah Khomeini fears the most is that the events of 2009 will repeat. This revolution is his death".
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